Big Tech earnings: capex superguide, with one casualty#

Microsoft (FY26 Q3) put up $82.89B in revenue, +18$4.27 beat the $4.06 consensus. The headline most analysts circled was the FY26 capex forecast lifted to roughly **$190B**, up about 61% from 2025, against a prior consensus around $154.6B. AI annualized revenue hit$37B, +123% YoY (CNBC, Microsoft IR).

Alphabet’s Q1 was the clean beat of the night: $109.9B revenue (+20$20.03B vs. $18.05B expected, ads at$77.25B (+15.5%). Alphabet also raised its full-year capex to as much as $190B and traded up ~7% in premarket (CNBC, Bloomberg).

Meta is the cautionary tale. Revenue $56.3B (+33$26.8B (+61%) — and the stock got cut roughly 9% premarket because the company raised 2026 capex to $125B–$145B (from $115B–$135B) while flagging higher component pricing and softer user growth. Same AI-spend story, less forgiveness (Variety, Yahoo Finance).

Amazon’s Q1 came in at $181.52B revenue, EPS$2.78, and AWS grew 28% YoY to $37.59B — its fastest cloud growth in three years. Q2 operating income guide of$20–24B straddles the $22.65B consensus (CNBC).

Apple reports after the bell tonight. Street is around $109.7B revenue /$1.95 EPS, with iPhone the swing factor (AppleInsider). The succession backdrop is from a week ago — see Tim Cook stepping down — so commentary on the call matters more than the print.

The other side of the AI capex chart: layoffs#

April tech layoffs are tracking near 40,000, with Meta cutting ~8,000 and closing 6,000 open reqs while spinning up “AI builder,” “AI pod lead” and “AI org lead” tracks under a new Chief AI Officer. Microsoft and Oracle account for the bulk of the rest (BusinessToday, CNBC).

The pattern is now uncontested: hyperscalers are paying for GPUs, fabs and power instead of headcount. The capex line and the layoff line are the same line.

Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, Powell’s last meeting splits 8-4#

The FOMC kept the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% — markets had priced 100% no-change — but the vote went 8-4, the widest dissent since October 1992. Stephen Miran wanted a 25 bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan voted to hold but rejected the easing bias in the statement. Inflation is “elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices,” and the statement explicitly cited Middle East developments as a source of outlook uncertainty (Federal Reserve, CNBC).

Powell, meanwhile, is not actually leaving. At the press conference he said he’ll remain on the Board of Governors “indefinitely” — at minimum until the renovations investigation closes “with transparency and finality” (CNBC, Fox Business). Translation: the chairmanship handoff is done but the board seat fight isn’t.

Putin’s May 9 truce: Trump backs it, Zelensky calls it a parade shield#

A 90-minute Putin–Trump call on April 29 produced a Russian proposal for a Ukraine ceasefire timed to Victory Day on May 9. Trump publicly supported the idea (“I think he might do that”). Zelensky rejected it as “manipulation,” arguing the truce is engineered to protect the Moscow military parade from Ukrainian drone strikes rather than to start a real process (Kyiv Independent, Washington Post, Defense News).

On the ground that morning, Russia hit Odesa with a mass drone attack (18+ injured), air-raid sirens covered Kyiv, and at least two fuel tanks burned at an oil pumping station in Perm Krai after a Ukrainian drone strike (Kyiv Post). The 24-hour Russian losses count was 1,470 personnel (prm.ua). Context for how this fits into the broader trajectory: Russia claims Luhansk, Kyiv mass shooting.

China factory PMI surprises, services slip#

Official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 vs. 50.1 expected, with the new export order index moving above 50 for the first time in two years. The private RatingDog/S&P Global manufacturing PMI was a far hotter 52.2 — the strongest since December 2020 (CNBC).

The catch is on the services side: non-manufacturing PMI dropped into contraction at 49.4 (from 50.1), and the new orders sub-index fell to 50.6 from 51.6. Industry holds; domestic demand wobbles. With Brent near $120 and a Xi–Trump summit pencilled in for May, input cost pressure and Section 301 tariff clarity are the two variables Beijing is watching.

Quick hits#

• Ariane 6 launched 32 Amazon Kuiper satellites at 04:57 EDT; SpaceX Falcon Heavy put ViaSat-3 F3 in geostationary orbit the day prior (Space.com).
• Markets backdrop: Brent ~$120 / WTI ~$107 after WSJ reported Trump told aides to prepare for an extended Iran blockade and Axios reported Trump rejected an Iran proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Continuation of the thread covered in US–Iran blockade and ceasefire expiry (TheStreet).
• Caterpillar +6% on a beat; Eli Lilly +7% after raising full-year sales guide to $82–$85B (Bloomberg).